Could I be any later with this post? I've been meaning to write this post for a while now but then Vacation Week happened. Oh well. I still have about a half hour before the big telecast (well, longer for me because I'm watching The Amazing Race first and recording the Academy Awards to start later) so I guess I could still be later. Of course then it would be more an Oscar review rather than predictions, wouldn't it?
I used to be pretty good at predicting winners. A few years back, I correctly picked winners in every category, even the ones about which I knew nothing (short film and documentary mostly. Yes, I sadly don't know as much about documentaries as I should). I've been off the last year or so and haven't gotten much right at all. But this year I think will be different. This year I've actually seen most of the nominated films and I think that actually helps when making my selections.
Here's what I think will happen tonight:
Best Picture: First of all, I have to say how very much I hate that they nominate ten pictures in this category. Eight of them generally don't have a real chance in hell so it seems like a waste to nominate more than five. This year, I think it's going to be between The Social Network and The King's Speech and I'm giving the edge to The King's Speech. I haven't seen it but I think Colin Firth's performance will push it over the top. My dark horse pick is True Grit.
Best Actor: Colin Firth. If they call anyone else's name, there should be an immediate recount. Unless they call Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine) instead. I know he wasn't nominated (Gross Oversight) but stranger things have happened, right (Marisa Tomei, I'm looking at you).
Best Actress: I think Natalie Portman will dance away with the little gold man tonight. I saw Black Swan and I thought her performance was good but it didn't blow me away but neither did the other front runner Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right. I would like to give the award to Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale. It has to be Christian Bale. Did you see The Fighter? If you didn't know you were looking at Christian Bale, you'd never have guessed it was him.
Best Supporting Actress: I think this category will be between Melissa Leo for The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. I hear Melissa Leo made some "For Your Consideration" spots that have irritated people and perhaps hurt her chances so I'm giving the edge to Hailee. I'm not sorry about this because Hailee was amazing in her role.
Best Director: How did Christopher Nolan not get nominated in this category? Seriously, talk about an oversight. It's between Tom Hooper for The King's Speech and David Fincher for The Social Network. Dark horse honors to go the Coen Brothers. I personally hope the Coen Brothers win because they always give great speeches.
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3 will win. Whether it should or not. Sorry, I know this opinion puts me in the minority but I wasn't in love with the latest in the Toy Story saga.
Best Original Screenplay: An award I hope to someday win... I'm hoping Christopher Nolan wins for Inception. It'll be a nice consolation prize. Kind of like when they gave Sophia Coppola the screenplay award for Lost In Translation instead of giving her the Best Director award.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Another award I would hope to win...Aaron Sorkin had better win this award. If he doesn't, it had better go to the Coen brothers or Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours).
Cinematography: I fully expect Black Swan to win this award. That movie was gorgeous. If it's not Black Swan, I'd expect to hear Inception called.
Art Direction: I don't think it'll win but I am obligated to pick Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part One. It'll probably be Inception though.
Visual Effects: I know Inception should and will win this award but I am again saying Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part One.
Original Score: The Social Network is going to win because I think the Academy wants to see Trent Reznor give a speech. I know I do.
Costume Design: How did Black Swan not get nominated in this category? Oh well, I expect Alice in Wonderland to score a win. The Academy likes flashy costumes. Dark horse pick is True Grit.
All right well, it's coming up on Go Time for the ceremony so that's all for me right now. Super excited to see James Franco and Anne Hathaway host. Happy Oscar Night, everyone.